Summer Flights at Risk: EU Draws Up Jet Fuel Emergency Plan as Iran Crisis Threatens Air Travel

16.04.2026

The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has had a ripple effect that stretches well beyond the Middle East. For British and European travellers planning summer holidays, the most immediate concern is closer to home: Europe is running short of jet fuel, and the window to act is narrowing.

Airports Council International (ACI) Europe, which represents airports across the EU, has warned that a systemic fuel shortage could become a reality within weeks if supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain blocked. The European Commission is now preparing an emergency response plan, but the situation remains volatile. For anyone with European flights booked this summer, staying informed has never been more important.

What Is Happening

The conflict, which began on 28 February 2026 with US and Israeli strikes, brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near-complete halt. The waterway, which sits between Iran and Oman, normally carries around 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil, and is the primary shipping corridor for jet fuel reaching Europe from Gulf producers including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

A fragile two-week ceasefire, which began on 7 April 2026, has allowed only limited and irregular vessel movement. No significant fuel cargoes have reached Europe from the Gulf since late February, and the ceasefire has not produced the stable, sustained access the aviation sector urgently needs.

ACI Europe wrote to the EU Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism warning that, without a meaningful reopening of the Strait within three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage across the EU would become unavoidable.

Why Europe's Jet Fuel Supply Is Under Pressure

Europe relies on the Persian Gulf for between 25% and 33% of its total jet fuel demand. Pre-conflict, flows into northwest Europe alone amounted to approximately 177,000 barrels per day from the Gulf, with a further 31,000 barrels per day reaching southern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean.

The problem is that there is no quick alternative. The United States, for instance, supplied only around 3% of Europe's jet fuel before the conflict began. European refineries cannot rapidly scale up kerosene production to fill the gap, and alternative shipping routes add time and cost that the market is struggling to absorb.

Airports with between eight and ten days of reserves can manage in the short term, but only if replacement fuel keeps moving continuously through ports, pipelines, and storage facilities. With supply from the Gulf effectively paused, that chain has been broken for weeks.

Impact on Airlines and Travellers

Airlines across Europe are already responding. Scandinavian carrier SAS has cancelled 1,000 flights in April, while Ryanair's chief executive Michael O'Leary has said the airline will need to consider further cancellations and capacity reductions over the summer if the fuel shortage continues.

Lufthansa's chief executive Carsten Spohr has told employees the airline is forming internal teams to draft contingency plans, including the possibility of grounding some aircraft. Wizz Air flagged a projected 50 million euro hit to its 2026 net profit as far back as March. Virgin Atlantic's chief executive told the Financial Times the airline will struggle to turn a profit this year, even after adding fuel surcharges to tickets.

For passengers, that translates into potential flight cancellations, reduced frequencies on key routes, and upward pressure on airfares. Leisure routes and short-haul markets are particularly exposed, as airlines prioritise higher-yielding long-haul connections when fuel is rationed. The broader economic stakes are considerable: ACI Europe notes that air connectivity contributes 851 billion euros to European GDP and supports 14 million jobs.

What the EU Is Planning

The European Commission has confirmed it is preparing a set of emergency measures, expected to be announced by the end of April 2026. The plan centres on several key actions: mapping refining capacity across EU member states to identify where production can be increased; ensuring existing refineries operate at full output by deferring non-essential maintenance; monitoring and maintaining fuel stock levels; and exploring whether non-emergency EU purchasing of jet fuel could be coordinated centrally.

Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has written to all EU Energy Ministers urging coordinated action, cautioning against any member state measures that might restrict the free flow of petroleum products across borders or discourage domestic refinery output. ACI Europe has also called for targeted refinery obligations, relaxed fuel import regulations, and for airports, airlines, and ground handlers to be included within any state aid frameworks activated in response to the crisis.

As of mid-April, the Commission has confirmed there is no active shortage yet. Airports including Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Frankfurt, and Amsterdam Schiphol are monitoring the situation closely, though none has released detailed public contingency plans.

What Travellers Should Expect This Summer

The honest answer is that the picture remains uncertain, and the next few weeks are critical. If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen in a meaningful and stable way by early May, the disruption to summer flight schedules could be significant. Experts at Rystad Energy have warned that severe flight cuts across Europe could begin as early as May and June if fuel deliveries do not recover.

For travellers, a few practical steps are worth considering. Booking flexible fares where possible gives you more options if schedules change. Travel insurance that covers flight disruption due to fuel shortages or geopolitical events is worth reviewing carefully. If you are booking ahead for late summer or autumn, it is reasonable to monitor airline communications closely over the coming weeks before committing to non-refundable arrangements.

The scale of the problem should not be understated. ACI Europe has estimated that 170 million people across the EU rely on air travel during the peak summer period. Any systemic shortage would land at precisely the worst point in the travel calendar, when aircraft rotations are at their most intensive and there is the least capacity to absorb unexpected disruption.

Looking Ahead

European regulators and the aviation industry are taking this seriously, and the response from Brussels so far has been measured and coordinated. There is no shortage today. But the margin for error is shrinking, and much depends on whether the ceasefire holds and whether the Strait of Hormuz returns to anything close to normal operating conditions.

At Blue Lotus Vacations, we are monitoring the situation in real time and will keep our clients updated as developments emerge. If you have existing bookings with us and have questions about your travel plans, our team is on hand to advise. For those still planning summer travel, we are here to help you navigate your options and book with confidence.